02 January 2011

Results From My 10 Microsoft Predictions For 2010

Microsoft Logo

At the start of 2010 I posted 10 Microsoft centric predictions for 2010, here are the results of what happened. Check that post for context on this post as they work in tandem.

1.-New Money Makers.

I.-Microsoft Automotive

I predicted it would have to be a big year for Microsoft Automotive and the result is that I was right.

2010 brought the realization of a renewed interest in this Area from both Microsoft and the market:

  • Ford Sync 2.0 was released and Ford continues to have big success with all the Sync related tech. To the point where they are expanding even further in 2011.
  • A new venture called UVO was announced between Microsoft and KIA Motors.
  • Fiat Blue&Me partnership with Microsoft was renewed once again.
  • Current Windows CE 6.0 R2 based car computers have continued to thrive in Asia
  • WEA7 (Windows Embedded Automotive 7) based on the yet to be released WEC7  was announced and Nissan was the first to implement it in the Nissan Leaf. 

II.-Microsoft Robotics

While the Microsoft Robotics had a even better year in 2010 than in 2009. It is not a Money Maker yet. Microsoft decided to make almost everything around this area Free. They also have opted to do more contests and sponsorships around the matter. So I doubt it had produced more money than in 2009, I think it might have actually turned into a Microsoft Research related expense all together.

I was wrong. It is was not yet the time for Microsoft Robotics to shine as a Money Maker. But it is definitely a area that is getting hotter, just to slow to care about it right now.

III.-Windows Server HPC and Windows Home Server.

2010 was a boost year for Windows Server HPC as it gained more ground in that Market and a new update of it was released as Windows Server HPC 2008 R2. But it still failed to grow as much as Microsoft expected it would. Or so it is my impression.

Windows Home Server on the other hand suffered a set back as HP discounted the WHS 1.0 line and WHS 2.0 got severely delayed. To the point it is now even in the middle of a controversy because it is said that version 2.0 will not have the Drive Extender feature. One of the very featured that defined the first release.

Unfortunately that means I got wrong this one too. Damn you Windows Home Server team.

IV.-Windows Media

This one is actually easy to call for me. I got it right.  It was the a great year for Windows Media mostly thanks to Zune being launched internationally via Xbox 360 and WP7. Mediaroom 2.0 got pumped up thanks to a wider adoption via AT&T U-Verse and other providers in the U.K.  Media Center got added to Windows Embedded Standard 7 in more form and the option to have barebones WES7 Media Center geared install is also available.

Most of the other wins for Windows Media were thanks to IIS7 and Silverlight that now that offers a option to target platforms where Silverlight is not natively available like the iPhone, Blackberry or whatever other big Mobile or Desktop Platform a client may require.

Windows Media, it is multitude of faces is did great in 2010.

V.-Silverlight

Another right.  Thanks to the World Cup 2010, the release of Silverlight 4, Windows Media thriving, WP7 release and many other things.  2010 was a big year for Silverlight.

While a lot of blogs called for Silverlight fading in 2010 because of HTML5 and what not. They were absolutely wrong.  Silverlight adoption managed to grow to a 70% of adoption despite Microsoft refocusing of Silverlight role in IE9, Bing, Office, Windows Live as only of as a power user enabler. 

Silverlight for Symbian ended up launching, WP7 launched and Microsoft finally confirmed during 2010 that Silverlight 5 will be a big release and that Silverlight would appear later on in the Xbox 360 and even Set Top Boxes. If Silverlight is also meant to be integrated to Mediaroom 2.0, that has not been said.

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2.-Search War Escalates And Results Add Up Slowly But Surely

  • Bing managed to complete the Yahoo Search deal and has now integrated its search engine to Yahoo. This move ended up giving Microsoft control of 25% of the USA search marketshare. 
  • Bing progress has been constant, even on the competition turf (iOS, Android, Symbian, Blackberry).
  • Google started fighting back by copying some of Bing features.

My original comments here about Google starting to get distracted by Android and Chrome successes did started getting true. So it was the part about Anti-Trust clouds forming above Google head. In 2010 many lawsuits accusing Google of playing dirty were filed and the EU is now starting to track Google moves more closely.

3.-Office 2010 Will Have Silverlight Based Counterparts For The Most Important Components By The End Of 2010.

Up to now, Office Live only counts with Silverlight enabled improvements.  No new Office Web Apps were released. Microsoft focus went to making the current Office Web Apps better and to integrate Office Web Apps into Windows Live and Facebook.

4.-It Will Be WPF Breakout Year.

Only in the enterprise and the developer spaces. WPF 4.0 so far has only seen a few consumer targeted big apps. Visual Studio 2010 and Expression Studio 4 remain the biggest WPF Microsoft made apps.

5.-The .NET Framework Goes Places.

This was not much of a hard prediction to begin with. Thanks to the release of .NET 4.0 , WP7, WES7, WEA7, XNA, Silverlight, ASP.NET, the crazy amount of parallel developments that .NET can tap into and the advancements of Mono (and everything it encompasses).

Thanks to all that, the .NET stack continues to get stronger. Without any sign of it stopping or slowing down.

6.-XNA in Mobiles, Desktop And The Browser In A Official Form.

It happened, just not in entirely straightforward way for the most part. Thanks to a little reboot of Games for Windows, MSN games (doubling now as Bing Games) and Live Messenger games. There is now a clear was for how XNA will get to Desktop users either via a install or  the browser thanks to Silverlight.  XNA on Mobiles was more direct thanks to WP7 launch and XNATouch use via MonoTouch.

But things are still in transition.

7.-Windows Live Will Ship New Apps And New Services Besides Solid Updates.

Here I reiterate just how hard it is to predict anything Windows Live related.

Windows Live did released solid updates. Released New services as a plugin repository and a WP7 device manager. But they didn’t released new apps at all.  Live Sync and Live Mesh for example were merged into one and the web and mobile side of Live Mesh got cancelled in favor for the one from Live Sync.

8.-Microsoft Surface 2 Will Get Released In New Forms And Surface 1 Will Be Available For $5K.

Surface 2 got delayed and Surface 1 is still being sold as it was. Some non-Microsoft sold used units do have surfaced (pun intended) for $5K though.

Surface 1 surprisingly continues to do well, even as it starts to get dated. But I have seen that some apps running in it are now not only done in WPF, but also in Silverlight 4 as a way to make the apps faster.

9.-Microsoft Will Get So Aggressive In The Cloud That Will Quickly Match Or Surpass Everyone Else

During the first half of 2010, Microsoft said it had gained over 10,000 paying customers for Windows Azure.  Total numbers for Windows Azure adoption are slated to be released this month. Estimates for 2010 full customers number are anywhere from 20,000 to 30,000.

Windows Azure updates have been constant and it has stayed competitive against Amazon and Google.

Microsoft Online Services reported big contract gains during 2010 and what previously was known as BPOS is now know as Office365.

Anyone willing to doubt that Microsoft stood at the level in the cloud is just trolling.

10.-Windows Mobile Will Be Fine And WM7 Will Surprise

Lets get this out of the way: Windows Mobile 6.5 tanked in sales in the USA, yes, of course that did happened. But its installed based managed to hold thanks to contracts. The same happened around the world. But worldwide thanks to emerging markets and china. WM 6.5 managed to hold on.

Now, before anyone cites numbers from the android activations. but Android Activations do not mean 1 Android device sale at all.

Originally the first part of this prediction was based on me thinking that there was going to be a WM 6.5.7 and 6.5.9 update. No such luck and Windows Mobile ended in 6.5.5.

But boy if could not have predicted Android having such and insane adoption. It not only grew 8 times, but around 10 times the size it was one year ago. and in November it surpassed the installed base of Windows Mobile. So it was wrong in me saying it was unlikely for android to grow 8 times its size in 2010. But I was not wrong on me thinking WM could hold on fine for 2010 on a worldwide basis.

WebOS did tanked and didn’t went anywhere in 2010.

But my predictions on WP7 were spot on. nuff’said.

Results

Very Strict:          4  out of 10           (  2,5,6,9 )

Strict:                    6  out of 10            ( 1,2,5,6,9,10)

Not Strict:           7  out of  10            (1,2,5,6,7,9,10)

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Not a bad turn out at all I must say.



1 comments :

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