15 August 2011

On Google Acquiring Motorola Mobility

2011-08-15_1711

Just days ago the news were how deep in trouble Google was because of their court problems escalating, as they are getting closer to losing out against Oracle in court; And as both Microsoft and Apple had been going after Android OEM's hard.


In the case of Microsoft successfully convincing what rumors state as at least a dozen Android OEM's to pay for patent protection so far. And with the revelation that Apple was not just in a war with Samsung, but was about to start another one with Motorola.


This got to me to think "I guess this is it, Google is going to get slammed hard on all directions". Because factually the chances of Google being able to not get steamrolled were getting really slim.


Forward to today Monday 15 of August of 2011, and the news is that Google is willing to be paying 12.1 billion for Motorola Mobility. With the rumors that supposedly Microsoft was interested. Which after a little quick investigation is not at all true. Microsoft was interested in a whole other kind of deal altogether. One that meant they would be giving Motorola Mobility a unknown amount of money (anywhere from 1-2 billion at least) for access to Motorola patent portfolio,  to end hostilities between the two of them and assuring  that Motorola Mobility would add a WP7 device into their line.


A plan that had been in motion for a well while. Plan that Google could just not allow to go through. As Motorola Mobility was also getting closer to losing to Microsoft on court as observed by many specialists, including the now omnipresent in anything mobile patent related Florian Mueller . So why Google went and did this? What were the causes for they to do it?


1.-Motorola Mobility was/is going to lose against Microsoft in court, sooner rather than later.
2.-Microsoft was making a palatable offer to Motorola Mobility  that would not only end Motorola's woes with Microsoft, but that would make it a stronger company. One that would have less to fear from Apple and one that would be able to have leverage over Google.
3.-Samsung is at a full on war with Apple. You can bet that they were pressuring Google to "fucking do something" to help already.
4.-HTC is on a war of their on with Apple. You can bet that they were pressuring Google to "fucking do something" to help already.
5.-A looming LG warming up to enter into the mobile wars was getting closer.
6.-Microsoft getting access to Motorola's patent treasure chest was effectively "Game Over' for all Android OEM’s against Microsoft. Which would had forced them to form a line and just pay up to Microsoft. No mistakes about it. Even with the likes of Samsung and LG.
7.- Google PR had effectively fucked up any chance for they to make a credible complaint to the powers that be, after the pwning they suffered at the hand of Microsoft via Brand Smith and Frank Shaw, just with a bunch of Tweets, nonetheless. And it was also announced recently that the Anti-Trust overview was going to include Android.
8.-Motorola CEO also had thrown out a threat to the ring of the Mobile Wars very recently, of they going into the collection of patent royalties. More than likely that this comment had to do or came up after their talks with Microsoft.


Really not much wiggle room for Google's Android right?


Meaning that if Google didn't either overpaid for the similar deal to the one Microsoft was proposing, they were better off just buying Motorola outright. But you can also bet that the Microsoft deal talks, was the reason why and how they were willing to pay a whooping 50%+ premium for Motorola. Something crazy enough to make anyone in tech to remember the Microsoft bid for Yahoo.


Now, what does this means for Android:

 
Pro's
1.-Potentially could make Microsoft to rethink how they will deal with Motorola Mobility and other Android OEM's now.
2.-IF Google is going to give Android Partners access to Motorola's Patent Chest, this could mean the end of Apple being able to win against Samsun and HTC. And also to stop them trying to go against Motorola. Of course that giving access to that patent chest means that OEM’s will have to do commitments to Android for the long term, as in years.


Con's
1.-Current Android OEM 's will have to mull over if they will continue to be partners with Google outright.
2.-Current Android OEM's could decide that maybe it is time for them to start talking more with Microsoft over WP7.
3.-Carriers may not like Google owning a OEM and could encourage OEM’s to have WP7 in their strategy.


What this deal of Google owning Motorola Mobility don't changes:


1.-Oracle vs Google is not affected by this. At most it could just accelerate a settlement. In Oracle's favor. I still put that at 1 billion dollars minimum.
2.-The new hurdle of Android OEM's having lost the right to redistribute Linux because of breaching of OSS licenses. Even if that is really "Meh" at this point.


For me, i think it was a inevitable decision. If Google didn't did this, Android was reaching a point were it would just die of out of taxation from Microsoft and Apple within a year.


Finally, as other interesting after effects from Google owning Motorola:


Google now can produce not only their own Smartphones and Slates. They can even produce their own Android Set TopBoxes or ChromeOS netbooks....Hell, if that is not interesting.
.

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